More than 40 Indian companies are expected to launch more than 50 brands within weeks, analysts and doctors said, expanding access to a price-sensitive market, but also raising concerns about misuse and confusion between versions as costs soar.
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“With high demand, falling prices and multiple brands, you may see direct pharmacy buys, distributor-level lines, or cosmetic or lifestyle uses, especially in urban markets,” said Salil Kalyanpur, an independent analyst.
“This can lead to misuse, poor titration and irregular side effects, and ultimately regulatory rigidity.”
The drug regulator of India did not respond to a request for comment. Semaglutide is a prescription drug, but implementation in India is often uneven, with doctors and pharmacists playing the role of gatekeepers.
India, the world’s most populous country, has the second largest number of diabetics after China and could have more than 440 million overweight or obese people by 2050, according to the Lancet, a medical journal, and the International Diabetes Federation.
India’s obesity drug market will grow to 80 billion rupees ($856.6 million) by 2030 from about 15 billion rupees today, according to Pharmamark estimates.
Looking forward to the price
Indian generic pharmaceutical manufacturers, known globally for producing low-cost drugs, are expected to have discounts of at least 50% to 60% on their generics.
Analysts say the monthly price for the lower dose could fall from Rs 11,000 to Rs 3,000 to Rs 5,000 as the first generics come in and eventually reach around Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,500, expanding reach beyond the urban elite.
“I will consult with my doctor to see if I can switch to using the generic version, because it seems lighter on the pocket.” said Vishal, 32, a tech worker from Hyderabad who is thinking of switching from Vigoi.
Many other patients in India’s out-of-pocket market have also started inquiring about cheaper options, some of which are expected to launch as soon as Saturday, a day after the new patent expires.
“The price range is broadly Rs 2,500 to Rs 3,500, which is very low,” said bariatric surgeon Venugopal Pareek. Six of his patients are waiting for generic prescriptions to switch from newer or older drugs.
Lower prices are expected to expand the patient pool.
“The entry of patients from the lower economic class may happen in branded generics,” said Sheetal Sapli, vice president of business at Pharmamark, noting that the company’s profitability will depend on price discipline.
Novo and Lilly did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
Choice of doctors
Even as prices drop, analysts say the winner in the market will depend not only on cost, but also on physician trust.
The Indian pharmaceutical market is largely driven by prescriptions and uptake will depend on physician recognition and trust in individual brands.
With uneven experiences and aggressive marketing, early-stage products are likely to overwhelm prescriptions, analysts said.
Many generic pharmacists opt for brand names that include “Sema,” which can also add to the confusion.
Over time, analysts expect physician confidence to strengthen around a handful of players that offer reliable supply, quality delivery devices and consistent results.
“Weak players with poor quality and no difference are likely to be out for two to three years,” Kalyanpour said.
Reporting by Rishika Saddam; Editing by Danya Scariachan and Thomas Derpingas
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